Sampling Balanced Forests of Grids in Polynomial Time

We prove that a polynomial fraction of the set of $k$-component forests in the $m \times n$ grid graph have equal numbers of vertices in each component. This resolves a conjecture of Charikar, Liu, Liu, and Vuong. It also establishes the first provably polynomial-time algorithm for (exactly or approximately) sampling balanced grid graph partitions according to the spanning tree distribution, which weights each $k$-partition according to the product, across its $k$ pieces, of the number of spanning trees of each piece. Our result has applications to understanding political districtings, where there is an underlying graph of indivisible geographic units that must be partitioned into $k$ population-balanced connected subgraphs. In this setting, tree-weighted partitions have interesting geometric properties, and this has stimulated significant effort to develop methods to sample them.