Rainfall shocks and inequality have heterogeneous effects on farmers' seed purchase decisions in East Africa

Weather shocks and poverty worsen seed and food insecurity in smallholder farming. Here we use rich and representative household-level data for Ethiopia, Malawi, and Tanzania, combined with historical monthly weather data to examine the effects of prior drought exposure and wealth (asset endowment) inequality on seed purchase decisions. We find that between a third and half of the farmers purchase seed, and among seed purchasers, more than half of the total seed volume used is purchased. We model seed purchasing decisions using Cragg double-hurdle models, which allow variables to have different effects on the probability and the intensity of purchase decisions. We find that drought shocks experienced in the past season encourage sourcing seed off-farm through purchase in the following season. On average, drought shock exposure increases seed purchasing for both improved and local seeds in Malawi and Tanzania while encouraging (discouraging) local (improved) seed purchases in Ethiopia. In all three countries, farmers better endowed with household assets increase seed purchasing, particularly for improved seeds, after a drought shock exposure. In addition, smaller farm sizes and low asset wealth endowments in all study countries are significant deterrents for buying seeds in the market, particularly improved seeds. Policies need to support both formal and informal seed systems and address inequalities in access to seed from formal seed channels to achieve seed and food security under elevated climate risk.