Development and Validation of a Novel Preoperative Risk Score to Identify Patients at Risk for Nonhome Discharge after Elective Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair (EVAR)

Nonhome discharge (NHD) to a rehabilitation or skilled nursing facility after elective endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) is uncommon. However, NHD after surgery has an important impact on patient quality of life and postdischarge outcomes. Understanding factors that put patients undergoing EVAR at high risk for NHD is essential to providing adequate preoperative counseling and shared decision making. This study aimed to identify independent predictors of NHD following elective EVAR and to create a clinically useful preoperative risk score.Elective EVAR cases were queried from the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative 2014-2018. A risk score was created by splitting the data set into two-thirds for development and one-third for validation. A parsimonious stepwise hierarchical multivariable logistic regression controlling for hospital level variation was performed in the development dataset, and the beta-coefficients were used to assign points for a risk score. The score was then validated, and model performance assessed.Overall, 24,426 patients were included and 932 (3.8%) required NHD. Multivariable analysis in the development group identified independent predictors of NHD, which were used to create a 20-point risk score. Patients were stratified into 3 groups based upon their risk score: low risk (0-7 points; n = 16,699) with an NHD rate of 1.8%, moderate risk (8-13 points; n = 7,315) with an NHD rate of 7.3%, and high risk (≥14 points; n = 412) with an NHD rate of 21.8%. The risk score had good predictive ability with c-statistic = 0.75 for model development and c-statistic = 0.73 in the validation dataset.This novel risk score can predict NHD following EVAR using characteristics that can be identified preoperatively. Utilization of this score may allow for improved risk assessment, preoperative counseling, and shared decision making.