Risk Models for the Development of Cardiovascular and Microvascular Events in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes in the FIELD Study

Background: There are a few prediction models for chronic complications in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study developed such risk models. Methods: Data from 9795 adults with T2D in the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) trial were used to develop risk prediction models for total CVD events, cardiovascular mortality, amputations and new microvascular events using 27 candidate traditional risk factors and additional novel biomarkers (incl. vascular and systemic inflammation, oxidative stress; n=26) using exhaustive search methods. Results: There were 1295 total first CVD events, 267 CVD deaths, 115 amputations and 1530 new microvascular events. A total of 19 and 18 traditional risk factors were selected in the clinical risk models for total CVD events and CVD mortality, with AUC of 0.723 and 0.821 respectively. For individual microvascular complications, the AUC of their models ranged from 0.656 to 0.895. The addition of novel biomarkers to the clinical risk models only resulted in modestly higher AUC (Table below). Conclusion: New clinical risk models can be implemented as risk prediction tools for chronic complications in adults with T2D, including for sight-threatening retinopathy and amputations. Novel biomarkers may guide future research on disease mechanisms, but had limited predictive value over clinical variables. Disclosure K.Ong: None. M.Taskinen: Board Member; Novo Nordisk, Consultant; Eli Lilly and Company, Novartis, Akcea, Research Support; Novo Nordisk. R.J.Simes: None. A.Jenkins: Advisory Panel; Insulet Corporation, Board Member; Insulin for Life, Research Support; Abbott Diabetes, Medtronic, Hemsley Charitable Trust, Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF), National Institutes of Health. A.C.Keech: None. On behalf of the field study investigators: n/a. R.L.O'connell: None. A.S.Januszewski: None. M.W.Donoghoe: None. V.Gebski: None. D.Sullivan: None. K.Rye: None. R.S.Scott: None. J.D.Best: None. Funding Laboratories Fournier; National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (457103, 1024105, 1037786)