Carbon feasibility of terminating plastic waste leakage by landfill mining: A case study based on practical projects in China

Over 900 million tons (Mt) of plastic waste (PW) are disposed in Chinese landfills, posing a permanent risk of migration through environmental media. Landfill mining has emerged as a promising solution to this problem but requires incineration and a substantial energy supply for the excavation, sorting and recycling processes, which themselves exert environmental impacts, particularly on climate change. Based on the life cycle assessment of pilot-scale demonstration projects, this study investigates the carbon feasibility of landfill mining followed by several PW treatments to quantify whether terminating PW leakage from landfills will produce unaffordable greenhouse gas emissions in the drive towards carbon neutrality. The changing trend of the carbon feasibility was deduced considering the decarbonization scenarios of electricity sector and petrochemical industries. When all the sorted PW is treated by incineration with power generation, the climate-change impact of mining is 134.10 kg CO2-eq per ton of aged refuse, projected to increase by 100.47 % in 2050. To completely eliminate the PW in Chinese landfills, the incineration pathway would generate a minimum of 2457.66 Mt CO2-eq emissions, equivalent to 17.69 % of the 2020 emissions in China by carbon flow analysis. In all scenarios, the most carbon-feasible solution was mechanical recycling of high-quality PW combined with chemical recycling of low-quality PW, although the industrial application of chemical recycling technologies remains uncertain. This study provides stakeholders with systematic guidance for balancing the trade-off between PW management and climate action.