Spatiotemporal Variation and Quantitative Attribution of Carbon Storage Based on Multiple Satellite Data and a Coupled Model for Jinan City, China

Rapidly predicting and revealing the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of land-use changes in carbon storage within megacities under different scenarios is crucial to achieving sustainable development. In this study, Jinan City (JNC) is taken as the study area, and the Markov-FLUS-InVEST model is utilized to predict and analyze the spatiotemporal variation in carbon storage in 2030 under three scenarios, namely, the natural development scenario (S1), the ecological conservation scenario (S2), and the economic development scenario (S3). The drivers of carbon storage changes were identified using an optimal parameter-based geographic detection (OPGD) model. The findings indicate that (1) land use from 2010 to 2018 shows a trend of continuous expansion of construction land and reduction in arable land. (2) The main types of carbon pools were cropland, forest, and grassland, accounting for more than 96% of the total amount. Carbon storage showed a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2018, and the main type of carbon pool that decreased was cropland. The center of gravity of carbon storage increases and decreases was located in the southern Lixia District, and the center of gravity of increase and decrease moved to the southwest by 3057.48 m and 1478.57 m, respectively. (3) From 2018 to 2030, the reductions in carbon stocks were 3.20 × 106 t (S1), 2.60 × 106 t (S2), and 4.26 × 106 t (S3), and the carbon release was about 9 times (S1), 4 times (S2), and 10 times (S3) that of the carbon sink. (4) The contribution of slope (A2) ∩ nighttime light index (B6) and elevation (A1) ∩ nighttime light index (B6) to the regional heterogeneity of carbon stocks was the largest among the interaction drivers. To sum up, this study deepens the simulation of spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon storage under land-use changes in megacities and the related driving mechanism, which can provide the basis for scientific decision-making for cities to conduct territorial spatial planning and ecological protection and restoration.