Antarctic sea ice variability linked to three dipole modes of subtropical sea surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere

Based on statistical analyses of gridded data over the past four decades (1979-2020), we examined the teleconnection between the variability of the Antarctic sea ice and the leading modes of subtropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability known as the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD), the South Atlantic subtropical dipole (SASD) and the South Pacific subtropical dipole (SPSD). We show that the pattern and strength of the teleconnection differ with the SST modes. For each mode, while the regional distributions of significant Antarctic sea ice anomalies are broadly similar throughout the year, the areal extent and the magnitudes of the anomalies display a strong seasonality. Larger areas and magnitudes of significant sea ice anomalies occur in austral winter for the SASD, autumn and spring for the SPSD and non-summer seasons for the IOSD. We demonstrate that the spatial and seasonal variations of the sea ice anomalies associated with each of the three subtropical SST variability modes are largely consistent with the patterns of the anomalous temperature advection and sea ice transport by the anomalous atmospheric circulations induced by planetary wavetrains that are triggered by anomalous convective activities over different regions of subtropical oceans. These relationships between subtropical SST modes and Antarctic sea ice may serve as a valuable reference for predicting seasonal to interannual scale variations of Antarctic sea ice concentrations across each austral season.