Pacific cod in the Anthropocene: An early life history perspective under changing thermal habitats

The rapid decline in Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus, Gadidae) biomass following multiple Gulf of Alaska marine heatwaves (2014-2016 and 2019) may be one of the most dramatic documented changes in a sustainably managed marine fishery. As such, fisheries managers are exploring new recruitment paradigms for Pacific cod under novel environmental conditions. In this review, we address the challenges of managing and forecasting Pacific cod populations in the Eastern Pacific where thermal habitats for early life stages are undergoing varying rates of change across space and time. We use observational data to examine changes in distribution, abundance and demographics of the population from 1993 to 2020, and model contemporary and future changes of thermal habitat for both spawning success and age-0 juvenile growth potential. Results indicate that reduced spawning habitat and early life stage abundance may be a precursor to regional population decline, but the recent apparent increases in size-at-age of pre-recruits will have unknown impacts on future recruitment in these regions. We contend that continued monitoring of early life stages will be necessary to track changes in phenology and growth that likely determine size-at-age and the survival trajectories of year classes into the adult population. These include complex size- and temperature-dependent energetics spanning seasonal habitats through the first winter. Climate-ready management of Pacific cod will, therefore, require new process investigations beyond single-season surveys focused on one-life stage.