Toward understanding the interaction of shale gas–water-carbon nexus in Sichuan-Chongqing region based on county-level water security evaluation

This study develops a comprehensive framework for understanding the interaction of shale gas–water-carbon nexus in Sichuan-Chongqing region. Within this framework, a county-level water security index (WSI) evaluation system is structured. Spatial autocorrelation model and spatial matching degree model are integrated to illustrate the spatial agglomeration characteristics of water security and the water-carbon relationship, respectively. The impacts of shale gas development on water security and carbon emissions are evaluated based on identification of shale well productivity. Results show that about 25.17% of counties with WSI < 0.4 (unsafe), especially in the eastern region. The central cities (such as Chengdu and Neijiang) should take active steps to reach a safety threshold (WSI ≥ 0.6). Population growth can accelerate water security deterioration through uncertainty analysis. Moreover, the spatial matching degree between WSI and carbon emissions in most cities is extremely poor (< 0.5), implying that these cities should optimize their energy structure and promote green transformation. Water used for shale gas extraction can hardly be ignored from a county-scale perspective, especially in Tongliang, Tongnan, and Jianyang. The future shale gas development would pose a threat to the regional climate.