Fiscal windfalls and entrepreneurship: fostering entry or promoting incumbents?

We study the impact of government fiscal windfalls on entrepreneurship through an analysis of shocks to transfer payments in Peru. These pure transfers generate higher government spending, and we contrast the impacts on incumbent firms and entrants. Incumbent exits from the financial system are reduced, but previously troubled firms experience deteriorating performance. Increased transfers result in higher rates of firm entry into formal borrowing and superior entrant outcomes. Overall, startups outperform non-startups after heightened transfers.