Seismicity Based Maximum Magnitude Estimation of Subduction Earthquakes in Peru

JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESEARCH(2023)

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摘要
In seismic design, intensity parameters that represent seismic demand are commonly used. A probabilis-tic seismic hazard assessment is an accurate way of assessing seismic demand, based on a set of parame-ters that represent the seismicity of a region. How-ever, because some regions lack sufficient information, the selection of these parameters can be controver-sial. In Peru, selecting a maximum earthquake mag-nitude (Mmax) for regional seismic hazard assessments has proven to be a challenging task due to the limited available information concerning of large-magnitude events. This study evaluated the Mmax for subduc-tion earthquakes using scaling relationships, empirical evidence, and the extreme value statistics (Kijko and Bayesian) approach. The seismic catalog was updated to February 2022 and divided into 19 subduction seis-mic sources (5 interface and 14 intraslab). The results showed that the obtained Mmax are within the range of Mw 8.7-9.0 for the interface and Mw 7.6-8.1 for the intraslab sources, which unlike the Mmax values estab-lished in previous regional seismic hazard assessments, are more consistent with the historical and instrumen-tal seismicity and rupture models.
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关键词
subduction earthquakes,peru,estimation
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