Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849–2012 by forcing prescribed terminus positions in ISSM

Abstract. Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are sensitive to terminus retreat. Yet, it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice marginal changes. Here, we simulate the 1849–2012 ice velocity and thickness changes on Upernavik Isstrøm using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM; Larour et al., 2012), by prescribing observed glacier terminus changes. We find that a realistic ISSM simulation of the past mass balance and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm is highly dependent on terminus retreat. At the end of the 164 year simulation, the 1990–2012 ice surface elevation and velocities and are within ±20 % of the observations. Thus, our model setup provides a realistic simulation of the 1849–2012 evolution for Upernavik Isstrøm. Increased ice flow acceleration is simulated during the 1930s, late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012, coinciding with increased prescribed negative surface mass balance anomalies and terminus retreat. The simulation suggests three distinct periods of mass change: (1849–1932) having near zero mass balance, (1932–1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998–2012), where increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies lead to mass loss twice that of any earlier year. The main products resulting from this study are 1849–2012 reconstruction of surface elevation, velocity and grounding line position of Upernavik Isstrøm.