Rest or rust? Complex influence of schedule congestion on the home advantage in the National Basketball Association

The aim of this study was to examine the short-term and long-term effects of schedule congestion on the home advantage (HA) in the National Basketball Association (NBA). A total of 1214 games were considered from teams participating in NBA 2021–22 regular season. A bivariate Poisson regression model were used to estimate the effects of the schedule congestion on the HA. The results revealed that the relationships between the HA and the rest time of home and away team were non-linear in the schedule congestion cycle. Too much rest time might be detrimental to the team performance, especially for the away team. In addition, the accumulation of fatigue and incomplete physical recovery due to schedule congestion could have a season-long impact on the HA. The findings offered a new insight about the effect of schedule congestion on the HA and teams’ performance in NBA and might be useful for load management to reduce the disadvantage from schedule congestion, as well as the risk of athletes’ injury.