Complex interactions of ENSO and local conditions buffer the poleward shift of migratory fish in a subtropical seascape.

Ocean warming is associated with the tropicalization of fish towards higher latitudes. However, the influence of global climatic phenomena like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases on tropicalization has been overlooked. Understanding the combined effects of global climatic forces together with local variability on the distribution and abundance of tropical fish is essential for building more accurate predictive models of species on the move. This is particularly important in regions where ENSO-related impacts are known to be major drivers of ecosystem change, and is compounded by predictions that El Niño is becoming more frequent and intense under current ocean warming. In this study, we used long-term time series of monthly standardized sampling (August 1996 to February 2020) to investigate how ocean warming, ENSO and local environmental variability influence the abundance of an estuarine dependent tropical fish species (white mullet Mugil curema) at subtropical latitudes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Our work revealed a significant increasing trend in surface water temperature in shallow waters (<1.5 m) at estuarine and marine sites. However, against our initial expectation, we did not observe an increasing trend in the abundance of this tropical mullet species. Generalized Additive Models revealed complex, non-linear relationships between species abundance and environmental factors operating at large (ENSO's warm and cold phases), regional (freshwater discharge in the coastal lagoon's drainage basin) and local (temperature and salinity) scales across the estuarine marine gradient. These results demonstrate that fish responses to global climate change can be complex and multifaceted. More specifically, our findings suggested that the interaction among global and local driving forces dampen the expected effect of tropicalization for this mullet species in a subtropical seascape.