Existing caribou habitat and demographic models need improvement for Ring of Fire impact assessment: A roadmap for improving the usefulness, transparency, and availability of models for conservation

Environmental impact assessments often rely on best available information, which may include models that were not designed for purpose and are not accompanied by an assessment of limitations. We reproduced available models of boreal woodland caribou resource selection and demography and evaluated their suitability for projecting impacts of development in the Ring of Fire on boreal caribou in the Missisa range (Ontario, Canada). The specificity of the resource selection model limited usefulness for predicting impacts, and high variability in model coefficients among ranges suggests responses vary with habitat availability. The aspatial demographic model projects decreasing survival and recruitment with increasing disturbance, but high variability among populations implies the importance of these impacts depends on population status, and there is no current status estimate. New models that are designed for forecasting, informed by more current herd status information and information from neighbouring ranges, are required to better inform decisions. To demonstrate how open-source tools and reproducible workflows can improve the transparency and reusability of models we developed an R package for data preparation, resource selection, and demographic calculations. Open-source tools, reproducible workflows, and reuseable forecasting models can improve our collective ability to inform wildlife management decisions in a timely manner.