Modeling the Inflation of Türkiye Considering the Impact of Maritime Transport Costs

We modeled Turkish inflation using causality analysis by considering the impact of maritime transport costs. We also supported the results with impulse and response, and variance decomposition analyses. The results show that the exchange rate, commodity price, dry bulk freight rate and container freight rate have significant effects on inflation, and their shocks cannot be eliminated from the system for a long time. The most important factor affecting inflation is its historical value and the effect of exchange rates is also quite high. The container freight rate has a greater impact on inflation than the dry bulk freight rate. The forecast made using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model showed that inflation will continue to increase, but the rate of increase will slow down. It is important to implement appropriate policies to break the effect of expectations on inflation due to the new economic policies. Additionally, it is important to develop stabilizing tools to protect freight rates from the permanent effects of unexpected shocks.