Recent tangible interannual variability of monsoonal orographic rainfall in the Eastern Himalayas

Himalayas hydroclimate is a lifeline for South Asia’s most densely populated region. Every year flooding in the Himalayan rivers is usual during monsoon, which impacts millions of inhabitants of the Himalayas and downstream regions. Recent studies demonstrate the role of melting glaciers and snow, in the context of global warming, along with monsoonal rain causing recurrent floods. Here, we highlight the interannual variability in the eastern Himalayan hydroclimate as a natural hazard using observed reanalysis for the last 43 years (1979-2021). We found anomalous extreme years with eight dry years and eight wet years after removing the climate change signal. Monsoon rainfall is a significant contributor, and melting snow is not a potential contributor to these anomalous extreme years. The variability of Himalayan monsoonal rainfall is strongly regulated by local monsoonal Hadley circulation associated with Walker circulation. Our findings demonstrate mechanisms associated with Himalayan wet and dry response. The insights provided in this study underscore the impact of natural variability-driven challenging events that could be predictable. Thus, this mechanism could improve the predictability of the Himalayas floods.