Modeling Aquaculture Suitability in a Climate Change Future

Aquaculture has become the primary supplier of fish for human consumption, with production increasing every year since 1990 (FAO, 2020). At the same time, up to 89% of the world’s capture fisheries are fully exploited, overexploited, or collapsed. While some fisheries may have increased yields due to climate change in the short term, global fisheries catch is projected to fall by 10% by 2050 (Barange et al., 2014; Ramos Martins et al., 2021). However, the security of aquaculture production will depend on how future climate change affects productive regions as species’ optimal climatic conditions shift poleward (Chaudhary et al., 2021). This makes the forecasting of climate impacts on key aquaculture species a top priority in order to facilitate adaptation of this industry.