Risk phenotypes of diabetes and association with COVID-19 severity and death: an update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims/hypothesis To provide a systematic overview of the current body of evidence on high-risk phenotypes of diabetes associated with COVID-19 severity and death. Methods This is the first update of our recently published living systematic review and meta-analysis. Observational studies investigating phenotypes in individuals with diabetes and confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with regard to COVID-19-related death and severity were included. The literature search was conducted from inception up to 14 February 2022 in PubMed, Epistemonikos, Web of Science and the COVID-19 Research Database and updated using PubMed alert to 1 December 2022. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate summary relative risks (SRRs) with 95% CIs. The risk of bias was evaluated using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool and the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach. Results A total of 169 articles (147 new studies) based on approximately 900,000 individuals were included. We conducted 177 meta-analyses (83 on COVID-19-related death and 94 on COVID-19 severity). Certainty of evidence was strengthened for associations between male sex, older age, blood glucose level at admission, chronic insulin use, chronic metformin use (inversely) and pre-existing comorbidities (CVD, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and COVID-19-related death. New evidence with moderate to high certainty emerged for the association between obesity (SRR [95% CI] 1.18 [1.04, 1.34], n =21 studies), HbA 1c (53–75 mmol/mol [7–9%]: 1.18 [1.06, 1.32], n =8), chronic glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist use (0.83 [0.71, 0.97], n =9), pre-existing heart failure (1.33 [1.21, 1.47], n =14), pre-existing liver disease (1.40 [1.17, 1.67], n =6), the Charlson index (per 1 unit increase: 1.33 [1.13, 1.57], n =2), high levels of C-reactive protein (per 5 mg/l increase: 1.07 [1.02, 1.12], n =10), aspartate aminotransferase level (per 5 U/l increase: 1.28 [1.06, 1.54], n =5), eGFR (per 10 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 increase: 0.80 [0.71, 0.90], n =6), lactate dehydrogenase level (per 10 U/l increase: 1.03 [1.01, 1.04], n =7) and lymphocyte count (per 1×10 9 /l increase: 0.59 [0.40, 0.86], n =6) and COVID-19-related death. Similar associations were observed between risk phenotypes of diabetes and severity of COVID-19, with some new evidence on existing COVID-19 vaccination status (0.32 [0.26, 0.38], n =3), pre-existing hypertension (1.23 [1.14, 1.33], n =49), neuropathy and cancer, and high IL-6 levels. A limitation of this study is that the included studies are observational in nature and residual or unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out. Conclusions/interpretation Individuals with a more severe course of diabetes and pre-existing comorbidities had a poorer prognosis of COVID-19 than individuals with a milder course of the disease. Registration PROSPERO registration no. CRD42020193692. Previous version This is a living systematic review and meta-analysis. The previous version can be found at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00125-021-05458-8 Funding The German Diabetes Center (DDZ) is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Culture and Science of the State North Rhine-Westphalia. This study was supported in part by a grant from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to the German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD). Graphical Abstract