Spatiotemporal Evolution and Risk Analysis of Land Use in the Coastal Zone of the Yangtze River Delta Region of China.

The extensive accumulation of big data, along with the development of a high-performance platform, bridge the gap between the previous inability to provide long-term time series and broad-scale coastal zone monitoring and risk warnings with remote sensing techniques. Based on 20 years of Landsat images from the Google Earth Engine platform, the time series land cover in the coastal zone of the Yangtze River Delta in China was classified. Then, a spatiotemporal clustering method based on grid segmentation was proposed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution details of artificial surface expansion and the risks of cropland loss and ecological degradation caused by this. The results showed that significant changes have taken place in the quantitative structure and spatial morphology of coastal land use in the past 20 years. The artificial surface maintained a growth trend, increasing by 229%, while cropland decreased by 19%. Natural land showed a fluctuation pattern of “up→down→up”. The spatiotemporal details of land use obtained through 1km grid segmentation and clustering analysis were more significant. The artificial surface mainly underwent a progressive spatial expansion along the central urban area and important transportation axes (types III and IV), with the most dramatic changes occurring from 2010 to 2013. Type III cropland loss was the most significant, falling from 75.02% in 2000 to 38.23% in 2020. At the same time, the change in type III water body corresponds to the newly increased area of reclamation, which has decreased by 17% in the past 20 years, indicating that the degradation of coastal natural wetlands was significant. This paper provided a comprehensive diagnosis of coastal land use change, which could help policy makers and implementers to propose more targeted and differentiated coastal development and protection policies.