Bayley trajectories predict school readiness better than single assessments in formerly very preterm preschoolers

Background Development of children born very preterm (VPT) is evaluated using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. Early Bayley scores may not predict later outcomes. We studied whether VPT Bayley trajectories in the early years predicted school readiness better than single assessments. Methods We prospectively evaluated 53 VPT at 4–5 years using standardized measures of school readiness, including the domains of cognition, early mathematical and literacy abilities, and motor skills. Predictors were Bayley-III scores obtained 1–5 times/child between 6 and 35 months. Linear mixed models (LMM) with random effects extracted estimated random effect for slope (change in Bayley score/1 year) and fixed+random effect sum for the intercept (initial Bayley score) for each participant, to then evaluate 4–5-year outcomes prediction. Results Variability of individual trajectories prevailed across developmental domains. For the initial LMM, adding Bayley change to models with only initial score improved model fits for several Bayley-III domains. Models containing estimates for initial Bayley scores and Bayley change explained significantly more variability in school readiness scores (21–63%) than either variable alone. Conclusion Neurodevelopmental follow-up of VPT is more relevant to school readiness when children are assessed multiple times in the first 3 years. Neonatal intervention research could use early trajectories rather than single timepoints as outcomes. Impact This study is the first to examine individual Bayley scores and trajectories to predict school readiness of formerly preterm children at 4–5 years. Modeling demonstrated extreme variability of individual trajectories compared to the group’s average trajectories. Models containing initial Bayley scores and Bayley change over time explained more variability in preschool readiness than either variable alone. Using the Bayley to predict future school readiness is enhanced by administration across multiple follow-up visits and inclusion of change across the first 3 years. Follow-up care models and clinical trial design for neonatal interventions may benefit from a trajectory-based approach to outcomes evaluation.