MKMR: a multi-kernel machine regression model to predict health outcomes using human microbiome data.

Studies have found that human microbiome is associated with and predictive of human health and diseases. Many statistical methods developed for microbiome data focus on different distance metrics that can capture various information in microbiomes. Prediction models were also developed for microbiome data, including deep learning methods with convolutional neural networks that consider both taxa abundance profiles and taxonomic relationships among microbial taxa from a phylogenetic tree. Studies have also suggested that a health outcome could associate with multiple forms of microbiome profiles. In addition to the abundance of some taxa that are associated with a health outcome, the presence/absence of some taxa is also associated with and predictive of the same health outcome. Moreover, associated taxa may be close to each other on a phylogenetic tree or spread apart on a phylogenetic tree. No prediction models currently exist that use multiple forms of microbiome-outcome associations. To address this, we propose a multi-kernel machine regression (MKMR) method that is able to capture various types of microbiome signals when doing predictions. MKMR utilizes multiple forms of microbiome signals through multiple kernels being transformed from multiple distance metrics for microbiomes and learn an optimal conic combination of these kernels, with kernel weights helping us understand contributions of individual microbiome signal types. Simulation studies suggest a much-improved prediction performance over competing methods with mixture of microbiome signals. Real data applicants to predict multiple health outcomes using throat and gut microbiome data also suggest a better prediction of MKMR than that of competing methods.