Comparative analysis of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA and the New-York state

We use an exponential growth model to analyze the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the USA and the New-York state. This model uses the number of officially reported patients tested positive and deaths to estimate an infected hindcast of the cumulative number of patients who later tested positive or who later die. For each region, an epidemic timeline is established, obtaining a precise knowledge of the chronology of the main epidemiological events during the full course of the first wave. It includes, in particular, the time that the virus has been in free circulation before the impact of the social distancing measures were observable. The results of the study suggest that among the analyzed regions, only South Korea and Germany possessed, at the beginning of the epidemic, a testing capacity that allowed to correctly follow the evolution of the epidemic. Anticipation in taking measures in these two countries caused the virus to spend less time in free circulation than in the rest of the regions. The analysis of the growth rates in the different regions suggests that the exponential growth rate of the cumulative number of infected, when the virus is in free circulation, is around 0.250737. In addition, we also study the ability of the model to properly forecast the epidemic spread at the beginning of the epidemic outbreak when very little data and information about the coronavirus were available. In the case of France, we obtain a reasonable estimate of the peak of the new cases of patients tested positive 9 days in advance and only 7 days after the implementation of a strict lockdown. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement no external funding was received ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: No approval necessary; only public and anonymous data were used All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data referred to in the manuscript are available at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control