The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries

Most individuals who develop tuberculosis (TB) are working-age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impacts economic productivity and burdens health systems. New TB vaccine candidates may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on GDP growth in 105 LMICs, using a macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, in 2020 USD. We compared scenarios for introduction of infant and adolescent/adult vaccine candidates to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. Compared to the no-new-vaccine counterfactual, both vaccination scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modelled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8–3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine, and $0.2 ($0.1–0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, and concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence. ### Competing Interest Statement RAC is funded by BMGF (INV-001754) and received a grant from the Canadian Centennial Scholarship Fund. CKW is funded by UKRI/MRC (MR/N013638/1). RGW is funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01), EDTCP (RIA208D-2505B), UK MRC (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), ESRC (ES/P008011/1), BMGF (OPP1084276, OPP1135288 & INV-001754), and the WHO (2020/985800-0). Members of the funder participated as authors on the study. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest. ### Funding Statement This study was funded by the World Health Organization (2020/985800-0). ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.