Population mortality impacts of the rising cost of living in Scotland: modelling study

Objectives To estimate the potential impacts of unmitigated and mitigated cost of living increases on real household income, mortality, and mortality inequalities in Scotland. Design Modelling study. Setting Scotland, 2022/23. Participants A representative sample of 5,602 Scottish individuals (within 2,704 households) in the 2015/16 Family Resources Survey. We estimated changes in real household income associated with differential price inflation (based on proportion of household spending on different goods and services, by income group), both with and without mitigating UK Government policies, and scaled these to the Scottish population. We estimated mortality effects using a cross-sectional relationship between household income and mortality data, by deprivation group. Interventions Baseline was Scotland in 2022/23 with the average wage and price inflation of preceding years. The comparison scenarios were unmitigated cost of living increases, and mitigation by the UK Government’s Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) and Cost of Living Support payments. Main outcome measures Premature mortality rate and life expectancy at birth by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) group, and inequalities in both. Results Unmitigated price inflation was 14.9% for the highest income group and 22.9% for the lowest. UK Government policies partially mitigated impacts of the rising cost of living on real incomes, although households in the most deprived areas of Scotland would still be £1,400 per year worse off than at baseline. With the mitigating measures in place, premature mortality was estimated to increase by up to 6.4%, and life expectancy to decrease by up to 0.9%. Effects would be greater in more deprived areas, and inequalities would increase as a result. Conclusions Large and inequitable impacts on mortality in Scotland are predicted if real-terms income reductions are sustained. Progressive Cost of Living Support payments are not sufficient to offset the mortality impacts of the greater real income reductions in deprived areas. What is already known on this topic What this study adds ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The study did not receive any specific funding. The authors were salaried employees of their institutions when the work was conducted. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The study used survey data that are openly available to researchers from the UK Data Service (). I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors.