Modelling the association between neutralizing antibody levels and SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics : implications to define correlates of protection against infection

Background While anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody kinetics have been well described in large populations of vaccinated individuals, we still poorly understand how they evolve during a natural infection and how this impacts viral clearance. Methods For that purpose, we analyzed the kinetics of both viral load and neutralizing antibody levels in a prospective cohort of individuals during acute infection by Alpha variant. Results Using a mathematical model, we show that the progressive increase in neutralizing antibodies leads to a shortening of the half-life of both infected cells and infectious viral particles. We estimated that the neutralizing activity reached 90% of its maximal level within 8 days after symptoms onset and could reduce the half-life of both infected cells and infectious virus by a 6-fold factor, thus playing a key role to achieve rapid viral clearance. Using this model, we conducted a simulation study to predict in a more general context the protection conferred by the existence of pre-existing neutralization, due to either vaccination or prior infection. We predicted that a neutralizing activity, as measured by ED50 >103, could reduce by 50% the risk of having viral load detectable by standard PCR assays and by 99% the risk of having viral load above the threshold of cultivable virus. Conclusions This threshold value for the neutralizing activity could be used to identify individuals with poor protection against disease acquisition. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Clinical Trial NCT04703114 ### Funding Statement The AMBUCOV study was supported by the Fonds IMMUNOV, for Innovation in Immunopathology. An additional grant was obtained for immunological and virological experiments (COVID-19 grant number COV21039). The funding sources had no role in the study's design, conduct, and reporting. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Not Applicable The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The IRB C.P.P. Ile de France III approved the study protocol prior to data collection (approval number Am8849-2-3853-RM) and all subsequent amendments. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Not Applicable I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Not Applicable I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Not Applicable All codes, datasets for the modelling analysis and datasets for the figures, supplementary figures, tables and supplementary tables are available at .