Analysis of the Balance between Supply and Demand of Arable Land in China Based on Food Security

Arable land is the natural resource of food production, plays a key role in safe guarding people’s livelihood, maintaining social stability, and ecological balance. In the context of the great challenge of rapid loss of arable land and rapid growth of food demand due to rapid socio-economic development, scientific forecasting of arable land demand and supply, can clarify the conservation pressure of regional arable land, provide a reference for formulating effective arable land policies, and ensuring regional food security and sustainable development. Therefore, with the help of system dynamics model and Gray-Markov model, this study predicts and analyzes the balance of arable land supply and demand in China, and reached the following conclusions. (1) During the projection period, with the continuous development of living standards and agricultural technology, both per capita food demand and food production show an upward trend. However, the combined effects of changes in diet structure and grain yields on changes in arable land demand are smaller than those brought about by population changes. Therefore, the trend of arable land demand is similar to that of population change, and the arable land demand in China reaches a peak of 112.78 million hm2 in 2026. (2) The amount of arable land possession is always greater than the amount of arable land replenishment, and the arable land supply area shows a continuous decreasing trend, and the arable land supply in China is 127.16 million hm2 in 2035. (3) China’s supply holdings are all able to meet the demand of China’s arable land, but combined with existing studies, it is insufficient to meet the demand of crop rotation fallow between 2023 and 2030, which is not conducive to sustainable development. In the future, arable land protection policies should be comprehensively improved and strictly implemented to ensure national food security and achieve sustainable use of arable land.