A novel nomogram for prognosis stratification in salvage liver transplantation: a national-wide study with propensity score matching analysis in China

Background: Salvage liver transplantation (SLT) has been reported to be an efficient treatment option for patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection (LR). However, for recipients who underwent liver transplantation (LT) due to recurrent HCC after LR in China, the selection criteria are not well established. Methods: In this study, data from the China Liver Transplant Registry (CLTR) of 4244 LT performed from January 2015 to December 2019 were examined, including 3,498 primary liver transplantation (PLT) and 746 SLT recipients. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was used to minimize between-group imbalances. The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) between PLT and SLT in recipients fulfilling the Milan or Hangzhou criteria were compared based on the multivariate analysis, nomograms were plotted to further classify the SLT group into low-and high-risk groups. Results: In this study, the 1-, 3-and 5-year OS and DFS of SLT recipients fulfilling Milan criteria (OS, P=0.01; DFS, P<0.001) or Hangzhou criteria (OS, P=0.03; DFS, P=0.003) were significantly reduced when compared to that of PLT group after PSM analysis. Independent risk factors, including preoperative transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level, tumor maximum size and tumor total diameter were selected to draw a prognostic nomogram. The low-risk SLT recipients (1-year, 95.34%; 3-year, 84.26%; 5-year, 77.20%) showed a comparable OS with PLT recipients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (P=0.107). Conclusions: An optimal nomogram model for prognosis stratification and clinical decision guidance of SLT was established. The low-risk SLT recipients based on the nomograms showed comparable survival with those fulfilling Hangzhou criteria in PLT group.