Construction and dual internal validation of a short-term prognostic scoring tool for sepsis

Background: To construct and validate a simple and easily administered scoring tool for the prediction of short-term prognostic survival in adult patients with sepsis. Methods: This study is a retrospective and prospective cohort study. A total of 382 patients with sepsis. 274 sepsis patients from January 2020 to December 2020 were collected as the modeling group and 54 sepsis patients from January 2021 to December 2021 and April to May 2022 in the hospital were randomly collected as the validation group. They were divided into survival and non-survival groups according to the outcome. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted with subgroup analysis. The resulting models were tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The prognostic value of the variables on prognosis was expressed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A scoring tool was constructed and tested for the prognostic value of this score in the validation group. Results: The model had an AUC of 0.880 [95% CI (0.838–0.922), P < 0.001], model sensitivity of 81.15%, and specificity of 80.26% for predicting short-term prognosis in patients with sepsis. Further simplifying the model scoring rules and adding the lactate variable, the AUCs was 0.876 [95% CI (0.833–0.918)], P < 0.001], sensitivity was 78.69%, specificity was 82.89%, and scoring criteria were established. the AUCs of the internally validated model in 2021 and 2022 were 0.968 [95% CI (0.916 to 1.000), P < 0.001] and 0.943 [95% CI (0.873 to 1.000), P < 0.001], indicating that the constructed scoring tool has a good predictive value for short-term survival outcomes in patients with sepsis. Conclusions: Age, shock, lactate, lactate/albumin ratio (L/A), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) are five risk factors for adult sepsis prognosis in an early emergency. This scoring tool is developed to quickly assess the short-term survival outcome in adult sepsis patients. It is straightforward and easy to administer. It also has a high prognostic predictive value.The Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2200058375).