Heterogeneous driving effects of middle-class expansion on carbon emissions in various regions of China: A structural path decomposition analysis

Middle-class expansion has played a crucial role in driving the changes in embodied carbon emissions. However, its driving mechanisms still need to be clarified. In this paper, we compiled novel multiregional input-output tables to capture the rise of the middle class in China in terms of its expansion and consumption pattern changes. Structural path analysis was employed to investigate the critical paths of embodied carbon emissions from middle classes of different regions in China during 2012-2015. Structural path decomposition was further used to explore the driving factors along the paths, including changes in population size, consumption patterns, industrial structure, and carbon intensity. Our results show that, from 2012 to 2015, the role of the middle class in driving carbon emissions through the most critical paths was either enhanced or reduced depending on different factorial changes. Generally, the paths with enhanced roles of the middle class stemmed from the urban and rural middle classes in Central China, Southwestern Coastal, and Northern Coastal regions, and the changes in consumption patterns and population of the urban middle class were the main driving factors. The top 30 paths of carbon emissions growth driven by the urban and rural middle classes approximately increase 19.5 Mt and 8 Mt of carbon emissions, respectively. In contrast, most of the paths with the weakened role of the middle class were intraregional paths in the Southern Coastal and Eastern Coastal regions, and carbon intensity was the dominant factor governing the changes. Our analysis systematically revealed, for the first time, the heterogeneous impacts and driving factors of middle-class expansion in different regions of China on carbon emissions. Therefore, it provides new insights for climate mitigation in the context of China's plan to cultivate a majority middle-class society.