Decreased Aircraft Takeoff Performance under Global Warming

With global warming, extreme high temperatures become more frequent and are an important factor affecting aircrafts' takeoff performance. Using Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and Boeing Performance Software (BPS), the influence of increasing temperature on aircrafts' maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) and takeoff distance is evaluated quantitatively in this study. The results show that the distribution of summer daily maximum temperature shifts obviously to higher temperature at all the chosen airports and the variation in temperature is larger at four airports (Jinan, Shanghai, Lhasa, and Urumqi) during 2071-2080 under the RCP8.5 scenario than that in the historical run (1991-2000). The warming air leads to the MTOW reducing and takeoff distance increasing. Taking the Boeing 737-800 aircraft as an illustration, the number of weight-restriction days increases significantly across the airports, which can influence airlines' economic benefit and flight operations in the future. It is also found that the takeoff distance does not change linearly with temperature, but shows a stronger increase with higher temperature. The takeoff distance increases about 6.2% on average during 2071-2080 compared to 1991-2000 for the low-altitude airports, calling for an additional 113-222 m takeoff distance in future summers.