Demand Forecasting and Optimizing Collaborative Dispatching of Epidemic Prevention and Emergency Supplies in Urban Agglomeration at the Early Stage of Epidemic

When there is a big outbreak of a contagious disease, there aren't enough emergency supplies to stop the disease from spreading quickly. We need to do two things to solve this real- world problem: predict future demand and figure out the best way to schedule our reserves. Firstly, we combine the characteristics of how infectious disease epidemics spread between cities with population flow. Then, we introduce a modified SEIR model to simulate the spread of infectious disease epidemics within urban agglomerations, scientifically predict the number of infected people, scientifically define emergency medical material units, and effectively predict the total amount of materials needed. Secondly, we built a systematic optimization model for locating and sending emergency supplies to prevent epidemics based on how many supplies are expected to be needed in the area. This model takes into account how forecasting, stockpiling, and dispatching work together. It can also figure out where temporary dispatch points are and how materials get from one demand point to another. We choose the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration in China for the applied research. The goal is to use science to help make sure that emergency relief work in the region goes smoothly.