Topography exerts primary control on the rate of Gulf of Alaska ice-marginal lake area change over the Landsat record

Abstract. Lakes in contact with glacier margins can impact glacier evolution as well as the downstream biophysical systems, flood hazard, and water resources. Recent work indicates that glacier wastage influences ice-marginal lake evolution, although precise physical controls are not well understood. Here, we quantify ice-marginal lake area change in understudied northwestern North America from 1984–2018 and investigate climatic, topographic, and glaciological influences on lake area change. We delineate timeseries of sampled lake (n = 107) perimeters and find that regional lake area has increased 58 % in aggregate, with individual proglacial lakes growing by 3.08 km2 and ice-dammed lakes shrinking by 0.88 km2 on average. A statistical investigation of climate reanalysis data suggests that changes in summer temperature and winter precipitation exert minimal direct influence on lake area change. Utilizing existing datasets of observed and modelled glacial characteristics, we find that large, wide glaciers with thick lake-adjacent ice are associated with the fastest rate of lake area change, particularly where they are undergoing rapid mass loss in recent times. We observe a dichotomy in which large, low-elevation coastal proglacial lakes have changed most in absolute terms, while small, interior lakes at high elevation changed most in relative terms. These systems have not experienced the most dramatic temperature or precipitation change, nor are they associated with the highest rates of glacier mass loss. Our work suggests that, while climatic and glaciological factors must play some role in determining lake area change, the influence of a lake's specific geometry and topographic setting overrides these external controls.