A Linear Programming Model for Operational Optimization of Agricultural Activity Considering a Hydroclimatic Forecast-Case Studies for Western Bahia, Brazil

The water crisis is a reality in Western Bahia. In this region, a hydroclimatic monitoring system capable of providing water availability information in advance for water users was implemented objectively to avoid water conflicts. In this study, we proposed the integration between the hydroclimatic monitoring system and a linear programming method to optimize the agricultural net benefit considering the scenarios of rainfall delay or reduction. Case studies were demonstrated in five farms and three municipalities of Western Bahia. The results show that in irrigated areas, the model optimizes the net economic benefit by the possibility of a continuous or double-cropping system, even in rainfall delay or reduction, where irrigation can supply the water demand of crops. In rainfed areas, it is noticeable that in rainfall delay or reduction scenarios, the model response is not to crop, due to the accentuated water deficit in crops, which may cause a significant yield reduction. It was found in a farm-level analysis, where the model response was not to crop, and farmers had a yield reduction of 61% in rainfed areas. This study opens the integration between the optimization methodologies and the hydroclimatic monitoring system with new insights into how this integration can guide water governance actions in regions where the water crisis is a reality.