Graduate education, research and innovation: public offer effects of graduates on the potential for innovation business

Objective: Understanding the structures involved and the possible effects of policies to expand the supply of graduate labor on the innovation potential of Brazilian companies. Methodology: For this understanding, the causal diagram technique was used with soft modeling of the System Dynamics approach using the Vensim software. Originality: The relationship between the supply of qualified labor force for research and the increase in the innovative capacity of organizations does not present a linear relationship but depends on factors that go beyond the determinants of the academic sector. This work responds to the need to theorize about the complexity existing in the relationship between the public support of graduate studies and their returns through applying the scientific workforce in Research and Development activities in the productive sector. Main results: A conceptual model representing a system formed by the convergence between the structures of the Graduate Program Market and the Graduates' Market was presented. This proposal offers an overview of causal structures formed by the main variables involved in supply/demand by graduates in Brazil. Theoretical/methodological contributions: The knowledge and use of the System Dynamics approach support understanding complex phenomena, learning, and constructing viable solutions to public problems. Furthermore, it is an approach still incipient in Latin America, such as Brazil, and it is valuable for forming agendas and evaluating public policies. Practical contributions: Notably, this work encourages an urgent reflection on graduate and research policies articulated with the innovation context, bringing possible implications for the transfer of technologies. A potential instrument for analyzing and projecting the possible effects of these public policies in the context studied was proposed.