Transitional B cell cytokines risk stratify early borderline rejection after renal transplantation

Borderline rejection (BL) in renal transplantation is associated with decreased allograft survival, yet many patients with BL maintain stable graft function. Identifying patients with early BL at risk for shortened allograft survival would allow for timely targeted therapeutic intervention aimed at improving outcomes. 851/1187 patients transplanted between 2013-18 underwent early biopsy (0-4 mos). 217/851 (25%) had BL and were compared to 387/ 851 without significant inflammation (NI). Serial surveillance and for-cause biopsies and seven-year follow-up were used to evaluate histological and clinical progression. To identify high-risk patients, we examined clinical/histological parameters using regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction (tSNE) and a biomarker based on peripheral blood transitional-1 B cell (T1B) IL-10/ TNFa ratio. Compared to NI, early BL was associated with increased progression to late acute rejection (AR; 5-12 mos), premature interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) and decreased seven-year graft survival. However, decreased graft survival was limited to BL patients who progressed to late AR or IFTA, and was not influenced by treatment. Although tSNE clustered patients into groups based on clinical factors, the ability of these factors to risk stratify BL patients was modest. In contrast, a low T1B IL-10/TNFa ratio at 3 months identified BL patients at high risk for progression to AR (ROC AUC 0.87) and poor 7-yr graft survival (52% vs. 92%, p=0.003), while BL patients with a high ratio had similar graft survival to patients with NI (91%, p=NS). Thus, progressive early allograft inflammation manifested as BL that progresses to late AR in the first post-transplant year represents a high-risk clinical state for poor allograft outcomes. Such high-risk status can be predicted by the T1B IL-10/TNFa ratio before irreversible scarring sets in, thus allowing timely risk stratification.