Machine learning based potentiating impacts of 12-lead ECG for classifying paroxysmal versus non-paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

Background Conventional modality requires several days observation by Holter monitor to differentiate atrial fibrillation (AF) between Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) and Non-paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (Non-PAF). Rapid and practical differentiating approach is needed. Objective To develop a machine learning model that observes 10-s of standard 12-lead electrocardiograph (ECG) for real-time classification of AF between PAF versus Non-PAF. Methods In this multicenter, retrospective cohort study, the model training and cross-validation was performed on a dataset consisting of 741 patients enrolled from Severance Hospital, South Korea. For cross-institutional validation, the trained model was applied to an independent data set of 600 patients enrolled from Ewha University Hospital, South Korea. Lasso regression was applied to develop the model. Results In the primary analysis, the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) on the test set for the model that predicted AF subtype only using ECG was 0.72 (95% CI 0.65–0.80). In the secondary analysis, AUC only using baseline characteristics was 0.53 (95% CI 0.45–0.61), while the model that employed both baseline characteristics and ECG parameters was 0.72 (95% CI 0.65–0.80). Moreover, the model that incorporated baseline characteristics, ECG, and Echocardiographic parameters achieved an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.678–0.855) on the test set. Conclusions Our machine learning model using ECG has potential for automatic differentiation of AF between PAF versus Non-PAF achieving high accuracy. The inclusion of Echocardiographic parameters further increases model performance. Further studies are needed to clarify the next steps towards clinical translation of the proposed algorithm.