The impact of prolonged exposure to air pollution on the incidence of chronic non-communicable disease based on a cohort in Tianjin

Evidence on the associations of prolonged ambient pollutants exposure with chronic non-communicable diseases among middle-aged and elderly residents is still limited. This prospective cohort study intends to investigate the long-term effects of ambient pollution on hypertension and diabetes incidence among relatively older residents in China. Individual particulate matter exposure levels were estimated by satellite-based model. Individual gaseous pollutants exposure levels were estimated by Inverse Distance Weighted model. A Cox regression model was employed to assess the risks of hypertension and diabetes morbidity linked to air pollutants exposures. The cross-product term of ambient pollutants exposure and covariates was further added into the regression model to test whether covariates would modify these air pollution-morbidity associations. During the period from 2014 to 2018, a total of 97,982 subjects completed follow-up. 12,371 incidents of hypertension and 2034 of diabetes occurred. In the multi-covariates model, the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were 1.49 (1.45–1.52), 1.28 (1.26–1.30), 1.17 (1.15–1.18), 1.21 (1.17–1.25) and 1.33 (1.31–1.35) for hypertension morbidity per 10 μg/m3 increment in PM1, PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and SO2, respectively. For diabetes onsets, the HR (95% CI) were 1.17 (1.11–1.23), 1.09 (1.04–1.13), 1.06 (1.02–1.09), 1.02 (0.95–1.10), and 1.24 (1.19–1.29), respectively. In addition, for hypertension analyses, the effect estimates were more pronounced in the participants with age <60 years old, BMI ≥24 kg/m2, and frequent alcohol drinking. These findings provided the evidence on elevated risks of morbidity of hypertension and diabetes associated with prolonged ambient pollutants exposure at relatively high levels.