Triglyceride-Glucose Index and Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance in Young Adulthood and Risk of Incident Congestive Heart Failure in Midlife: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study

ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the association between triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index/homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) within young adults and congestive heart failure (CHF), and to explore whether TyG index can replace HOMA-IR as a surrogate marker for IR in predicting the risk of CHF. MethodsA total of 4,992 participants between the ages of 18 and 30 years were enrolled from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) investigation [from 1985 to 1986 (year 0)]. A Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was conducted for assessing correlations between baseline TyG index/HOMA-IR and CHF events, together with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve employed for scrutinizing TyG index/HOMA-IR and the risk of CHF. ResultsDuring the 31-year follow-up period, 64 (1.3%) of the 4,992 participants developed CHF. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounding factors for CHF, an increased risk of CHF was associated with a per-unit increase in the TyG index [hazard ratio (HR) 2.8; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.7-4.7] and HOMA-IR (HR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3). A Kaplan-Meier curve analysis showed that participants in the TyG index and HOMA-IR index Q4 group had a higher risk of CHF than those in the Q1 group. The area under curve (AUC) for the TyG index and HOMA-IR consisted of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.6-0.742) and 0.675 (95% CI, 0.604-0.746), respectively. There were no significant differences between the TyG index and HOMA-IR for AUC (p = 0.986). ConclusionThe higher TyG index and HOMA-IR are independent risk factors for CHF. The TyG index can replace HOMA-IR in young adulthood as a surrogate marker for IR to predict the risk of CHF.