Sexual Behavior Transition and Acute and Early HIV Infection Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: Evidence from an Open Cohort in China, 2011–2019

The present study examined how sexual behaviors transit over time among men who have sex with men (MSM) and whether these transitions were associated with acute and early HIV (AEH) infection. An open cohort study was conducted using snowball sampling to recruit MSM via physical venues and Internet venues from 2011 to 2019, in China. Cox models were used to estimate the correlates of risk factors and AEH infection. We used Latent Transition Analysis (LTA) to describe behavioral profile and explore latent behavioral “trans-phenotypes,” then examined the effect between different “trans-phenotypes” and AEH infection risk and explored the effect of characteristics as possible predictors of sexual behavior transition. Of 6502 MSM, a total of 1974 individuals with negative human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) tests at baseline and at least 2 visit records were included in the final analysis from 2011 to 2019. During an average 1.84 years of follow-up, 64 AEH infections were documented. In the multivariable Cox model, the association between condom use in last anal sex (HR: 0.095, 0.038–0.205), fewer sexual partners (HR: 0.375, 0.205–0.712), low frequency of condom use (HR: 3.592, 1.186–11.272), and AEH acquisition were found. The percentage of MSM with “maintain/develop safety-profile,” “consistent risky-profile,” and “safety-profile to risky-profile” were 52.48, 40.17, and 7.35%, respectively. Compared with “maintain\develop safety-profile,” “consistent or develop risky-profile” had an increasing likelihood of AEH infection. Meanwhile, male sex workers (MSWs) or older MSM were more likely to consist or transit in “risky-profile.” Having middle education is a risk factor to transit in “risky-profile” for MSM with “safety-profile” at baseline. In addition, MSM who accept health services in the past year engaged in higher proportion of developing safety-profile. Approximately half of MSM maintain or develop risky behavior with the increasing likelihood of AEH acquisition in China, which suggested that targeted and intensive interventions should be prioritized to maintain safety-profile. Clinical Trial Number: ChiCTR2000039500.