Can Users Predict Relative Query Effectiveness?

Any given information need can be expressed via a wide range of possible queries. Recent work with such query variations has demonstrated that different queries can fetch notably divergent sets of documents, even when the queries have identical intents and superficial similarity. That is, different users might receive SERPs of quite different effectiveness for the same information need. That observation then raises an interesting question: do users have a sense of how useful any given query will be? Can they anticipate the effectiveness of alternative queries for the same retrieval need? To explore that question we designed and carried out a crowd-sourced user study in which we asked subjects to consider an information need statement expressed as a backstory, and then provide their opinions as to the relative usefulness of a set of queries ostensibly addressing that objective. We solicited opinions using two different interfaces: one that collected absolute ratings of queries, and one that required that the subjects place a set of queries into "order". We found that crowd workers are reasonably consistent in their estimates of how effective queries are likely to be, and also that their estimates correlate positively with actual system performance.