A scoring system for predicting malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a multicenter EUROPEAN validation

Purpose A preoperative estimate of the risk of malignancy for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) is important. The present study carries out an external validation of the Shin score in a European multicenter cohort. Methods An observational multicenter European study from 2010 to 2015. All consecutive patients undergoing surgery for IPMN at 35 hospitals with histological-confirmed IPMN were included. Results A total of 567 patients were included. The score was significantly associated with the presence of malignancy ( p < 0.001). In all, 64% of the patients with benign IPMN had a Shin score < 3 and 57% of those with a diagnosis of malignancy had a score ≥ 3. The relative risk ( RR ) with a Shin score of 3 was 1.37 (95% CI : 1.07–1.77), with a sensitivity of 57.1% and specificity of 64.4%. Conclusion Patients with a Shin score ≤ 1 should undergo surveillance, while patients with a score ≥ 4 should undergo surgery. Treatment of patients with Shin scores of 2 or 3 should be individualized because these scores cannot accurately predict malignancy of IPMNs. This score should not be the only criterion and should be applied in accordance with agreed clinical guidelines.