Assessment of the potential of enhanced geothermal systems in Asia under the impact of global warming

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have increasingly received much attention recently, though few studies have focused on future EGS evaluation. This work presents an estimation and comparison of the EGS technical potentials between a datum period (1984–2013) and a future period (2091–2100). On the basis of an underground temperature model, the EGS technical potential is calculated for each grid and country. The EGS technical potential in 2091–2100 under four representative concentration pathways are further predicted using the projected future surface temperature data derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The mean EGS technical potential is estimated to be 7 and 25 We/m2 in the datum period for the depth ranging from 3 km to 7 km and from 3 km to 10 km, respectively. Results show that in the future period, the mean EGS technical potential for depths of between 3 and 5 km will rise by 8.6% compared with that of the datum period under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In this period, Russia is projected to surpass China as the country with the highest EGS technical potential. A similar trend is observed under the RCP 6.0 scenario, whereas results under the RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios are discrepant.