Prognostic significance of RNA-based TP53 pathway function among estrogen receptor positive and negative breast cancer cases

TP53 and estrogen receptor (ER) are essential in breast cancer development and progression, but TP53 status (by DNA sequencing or protein expression) has been inconsistently associated with survival. We evaluated whether RNA-based TP53 classifiers are related to survival. Participants included 3213 women in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (CBCS) with invasive breast cancer (stages I–III). Tumors were classified for TP53 status (mutant-like/wildtype-like) using an RNA signature. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate covariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) among ER- and TP53-defined subtypes. RNA-based results were compared to DNA- and IHC-based TP53 classification, as well as Basal-like versus non-Basal-like subtype. Findings from the diverse (50% Black), population-based CBCS were compared to those from the largely white METABRIC study. RNA-based TP53 mutant-like was associated with BCSS among both ER-negatives and ER-positives (HR (95% CI) = 5.38 (1.84–15.78) and 4.66 (1.79–12.15), respectively). Associations were attenuated when using DNA- or IHC-based TP53 classification. In METABRIC, few ER-negative tumors were TP53-wildtype-like, but TP53 status was a strong predictor of BCSS among ER-positives. In both populations, the effect of TP53 mutant-like status was similar to that for Basal-like subtype. RNA-based measures of TP53 status are strongly associated with BCSS and may have value among ER-negative cancers where few prognostic markers have been robustly validated. Given the role of TP53 in chemotherapeutic response, RNA-based TP53 as a prognostic biomarker could address an unmet need in breast cancer.