Variation in age of primiparity in mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) estimated from horn growth increments

Variation in age of primiparity is important for population dynamics and wildlife management because it can affect population growth. Using a novel technique based on the trade-off between annual horn growth and reproduction, we estimated the age of primiparity for 2274 female mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus (Blainville, 1816)) harvested across British Columbia, Canada, from 1976 to 2019. We then investigated spatio-temporal variation in the probability that harvested females were primiparous when aged 3, 4, or 5 years and older using Bayesian ordinal regressions. We found that the probability of primiparity at 3 years decreased over time in nearly all mountain ranges. In the Coastal Mountain range, however, the probability of primiparity at age 3 significantly increased. These results suggest that the large coastal populations of mountain goats could be more resilient to harvest than other populations in British Columbia, which may be experiencing environmental effects promoting later primiparity. Models predicting age of primiparity from annual growth measures are a valuable tool for wildlife management and could help conservation of many species.