Bidimensional and Tridimensional Poincare Maps in Cardiology: A Multiclass Machine Learning Study

Heart rate is a nonstationary signal and its variation may contain indicators of current disease or warnings about impending cardiac diseases. Hence, heart rate variation analysis has become a noninvasive tool to further study the activities of the autonomic nervous system. In this scenario, the Poincare plot analysis has proven to be a valuable tool to support cardiac diseases diagnosis. The study's aim is a preliminary exploration of the feasibility of machine learning to classify subjects belonging to five cardiac states (healthy, hypertension, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure and heart transplanted) using ten unconventional quantitative parameters extracted from bidimensional and three-dimensional Poincare maps. Knime Analytic Platform was used to implement several machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting, Adaptive Boosting, k-Nearest Neighbor and Naive Bayes. Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were computed to assess the performances of the predictive models using the leave-one-out cross-validation. The Synthetic Minority Oversampling technique was previously performed for data augmentation considering the small size of the dataset and the number of features. A feature importance, ranked on the basis of the Information Gain values, was computed. Preliminarily, a univariate statistical analysis was performed through one-way Kruskal Wallis plus post-hoc for all the features. Machine learning analysis achieved interesting results in terms of evaluation metrics, such as demonstrated by Adaptive Boosting and k-Nearest Neighbor (accuracies greater than 90%). Gradient Boosting and k-Nearest Neighbor reached even 100% score in sensitivity and specificity, respectively. The most important features according to information gain are in line with the results obtained from the statistical analysis confirming their predictive power. The study shows the proposed combination of unconventional features extracted from Poincare maps and well-known machine learning algorithms represents a valuable approach to automatically classify patients with different cardiac diseases. Future investigations on enriched datasets will further confirm the potential application of this methodology in diagnostic.