Late-action effect: Heightened counterfactual potency and perceived outcome reversibility make actions closer to a definitive outcome seem more causally impactful

We report a consistent effect in the evaluation of actions: later actions – specifically, actions that are closer to a final, positive outcome - are considered as contributing more to that outcome, compared to earlier actions. Twelve experiments (total n = 5658, six pre-registered, with U.S. American and British participants, manipulating action timing both within-subjects and between-subjects) provide evidence in support of a late-action effect. This effect extends to different domains, from sports to business to academics. Further, this effect is disproportionately larger when actions are closer to the end of an event. We identify two mediators. The first is a heightened tendency to imagine negative alternative scenarios when the action is closer to an outcome, that is, higher counterfactual potency for later actions. The second is perceived outcome reversibility – lower for later actions, when there is less time for the provisional outcome to change. The effect is mitigated if people are instructed to imagine counterfactual outcomes (consistent with the notion of a counterfactual potency mediation), and if the action does not produce a provisional outcome change. We discuss theoretical implications for the psychological understanding of timing, causality attributions, and counterfactual thinking, as well as future research directions for goal-gradient (the tendency to give more weight to the last steps towards goal completion).