Mapping Forest Restoration Probability and Driving Archetypes Using a Bayesian Belief Network and SOM: Towards Karst Ecological Restoration in Guizhou, China

To address ecological threats such as land degradation in the karst regions, several ecological restoration projects have been implemented for improved vegetation coverage. Forests are the most important types of vegetation. However, the evaluation of forest restoration is often uncertain, primarily owing to the complexity of the underlying factors and lack of information related to changes in forest coverage in the future. To address this issue, a systematic case study based on the Guizhou Province, China, was carried out. First, three archetypes of driving factors were recognized through the self-organizing maps (SOM) algorithm: the high-strength ecological archetype, marginal archetype, and high-strength archetype dominated by human influence. Then, the probability of forest restoration in the context of ecological restoration was predicted using Bayesian belief networks in an effort to decrease the uncertainty of evaluation. Results show that the overall probability of forest restoration in the study area ranged from 22.27 to 99.29%, which is quite high. The findings from regions with different landforms suggest that the forest restoration probabilities of karst regions in the grid and the regional scales were lower than in non-karst regions. However, this difference was insignificant mainly because the ecological restoration in the karst regions accelerated local forest restoration and decreased the ecological impact. The proposed method of driving-factor clustering based on restoration as well as the method of predicting restoration probability have a certain reference value for forest management and the layout of ecological restoration projects in the mid-latitude ecotone.