VALIDITY OF LONG-TERM ONCOLOGY MODELING EXTRAPOLATIONS: A CASE STUDY IN RECURRENT OR METASTATIC HEAD AND NECK CANCER

The uncertainty of long-term treatment effect is a predictable element of scrutiny in oncology models. Conservative assumptions, e.g. treatment waning, are often made in the absence of long-term data. However, rarely are we able to validate our health economic model extrapolations. The objective was to compare the deviation between trial follow-up data and original model assumptions.