Referral system has a diminished difference in the risk for hepatic encephalopathy development among each etiology in patients with acute liver injury

Aim Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) development is crucial in liver transplantation for patients with acute liver injury (ALI) and failure (ALF); to predict HE development, the Japan Hepatic Encephalopathy Prediction (JHEP) model, calculated using age, etiology, prothrombin time (PT), and total bilirubin, was established in 2004, and a referral system to the liver center was implemented using the JHEP model from April 2004. Methods The JHEP model's ability to predict HE development in 460 consecutive patients with ALI between April 2004 and January 2021 using data from the referral system was evaluated, and the JHEP model was revised. Results During the observation period, 7.8% patients developed HE. There was no difference in the proportion of HE development among the etiologies. In the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for HE development prediction, the JHEP model, revised JHEP (rJHEP) model, which was calculated without etiology data, and the modified JHEP model, which used the PT international ratio instead of PT in the rJHEP model, were good fitting models. Upon 30% random sampling from the total patients 60 times, the receiver operating curve analysis of both JHEP and rJHEP models for HE development was performed in all the datasets. The area under the curve of the JHEP model was subtracted from that of the rJHEP model (95% confidential interval, 0.000516-0.01793). Conclusions The referral system using the JHEP model reduced the difference in the risk for HE development among each etiology; the rJHEP model had a better prediction ability for HE development than the JHEP model.